The Importance of History

"Professor Johnston often said that if you didn't know history, you didn't know anything. You were a leaf that didn't know it was part of a tree."
- Michael Crichton, Timeline

As we move forward into the future, it is deliciously tempting to hold the belief that everything we experience or every event we encounter (check out the massive alliteration there) is brand new and that we are at a sort of frontier point in global history. I mean, with new technological innovations in communications, transportation, household appliances, whatever, it would seem intuitive to believe that the world is unlike anything we've ever seen before.

I agree that the world is more inter-connected than ever. I agree that the gadgets and technology we have now make the world (or at least those who are not in poverty) a much more convenient place to live. I agree that financial products have a degree of sophistication that is unlike anything we've ever seen. I agree that the level of technological power in a smartphone now is unparalleled.


And may bring our inevitable downfall.

You can get me to agree on all that. But I think, while the names of people change, the timing of events change, the places of events change, events do not change. Whatever event that happens today has, I believe, at some point, happened in history before. Yes, the products are different. Yes, the diffusion of the benefits and costs are wider now. But the events are largely the same.

Let's consider first some simple examples. Take Avatar or, even, 3D movies in general. Think of the event. Huge movie using CGI that was supposedly unparalleled in history. Big-name director. Global reach. How is this any different from when Star Wars was released? Or further back, the first non-silent movies? Or further back, the first ballet show. The technology is more advanced sure, but the circumstances in which the event occured is hardly new.

Now, a bigger example - The rescue of the American financial system in 2008. The firms were over-leveraged, likely to have been involved in shoddy deals and most of all, driven by very shaky fundamentals. Yet, they were bailed out. Are the events new? Of course not. Long Term Capital Management was bailed out in 1998. The Savings and Loans Industry in the United States in 1991 was bailed out despite very shoddy dealings that involved the sales of junk bonds in order to purchase other companies. And for the fall of Lehman Brothers, there was the fall of Enron in 2001.

And, an even bigger example. During the onset of the Great Depression, one of the most, in retrospect, disastrous moves the United States made was to pass the Smoot-Hawley Tarrif Act in 1930, which increased tariff imports in the United States. This pissed off the trading partners of the United States who then unilaterally installed their own trade barriers. This whole game of one-up-man-ship resulted in a devastating drop in global trade, EXACTLY WHEN TRADE WAS MOST NEEDED, and an increase in unemployment, EXACTLY AT THE WORST TIME POSSIBLE, and from there, a further deepening of the Great Depression. Today, as the world stands at the precipice of another global contraction, the United States Senate has decided to pass a bill which would give the US Treasury power to impose tariff barriers on countries it identifies as currency manipulators (hint: China) which would, if passed into law, likely cause a global trade war. Exactly at the worst time possible. Go figure.

So, what I'm saying is this - times change. The names of people/countries change. The places change. But history repeats itself. Events don't change.

And it's because of this that it is especially critical for everyone to have an understanding of historical perspectives. History is important. In fact, it might be the most important subject you learn at school (going by the Malaysian education system). More important than Math. More important than English. More important than them all. Why? Because only by learning from the mistakes of history can we really combat the problems of the present.

Look, all of us, we make the same mistakes over and over again in our life. We consistently make poor choices even when we know these choices are poor ones. On a larger level, what makes top-level decision-makers any different from us? They are as human as we are. But we are under the delusional impression that we are all wiser than before and that every new occasion is just, well, new. So, we don't think that historical perspectives are relevant. We then, with an inflated sense of our wisdom, go on to assume that whatever has happened before won't happen again. But as we all know, history repeats itself.

Instead of recognising the importance of history, what do our history teachers in school tell us? Memorise these bits because this is what will come on the examination. Instead of actually learning history, all we perform is a rote memorisation of historical events without understanding WHY it is important. I am willing to bet that most of us didn't question the importance of history when we were studying it in school. Here's food for thought - How many of your friends went on to study "History" as a major or a minor or even took a class on history (if it wasn't a requisite part of coursework) when they left school for college and/or university? That's what I thought.

Admittedly, this is true for me as well. I will happily hold my hand up and say that I completely missed the point of history in school.

I'm sure I'm not alone in this. And I think this afflicts most Malaysians. Think about it - why can't Malaysian politicians or Malaysian political activists use the Civil Rights movement in the United States as a rallying point to all this racial politics stuff? The Civil Rights campaign was a hell lot bloodier and emotional compared to our racial politics. Never in the history of Tanah Melayu were a specific race brought over to only be slaves. So, it's obvious theirs will be more fire-crackery.

But the way in which Martin Luther King Jr and Rosa Parks and Malcolm X became symbols of justice, one way or another, for African-Americans was a critical factor for the success of the Civil Rights Movement. Instead of creating symbols or icons, our non-you-know-what politicians just choose to become symbols of anti-ruling-coalition. It completely misses the bigger picture. They don't understand that this is all about something bigger than themselves. But anyway, my point is, why not use historical lessons to inform the movements of today.

And since we're on the topic, consider dictatorships. As we all know, 2011 was a shitty year to be a dictator. But you know what? Dictators or rather, absolute rulers, have worked before in the past to great success. Why is this being left out of this anti-dictatorship movement? And is it necessarily true that democracy always works? Of course not. Dictatorship and democracy sustain as long as the people are happy and, most importantly, well-fed. Dictatorship and democracy fall or get overthrown when people become unhappy - in part because of civil liberties and that sort of moral stuff but in larger part because of starvation.

The deep, underlying reason for most of the civil unrest in the world for 2011 was, I will contend, escalating food prices which out-priced the poor. And so, since people couldn't buy food and couldn't find more jobs (due to the financial crisis), they felt poor and so they demanded change. And dictators became the scapegoat. Using the cloak of "Dictatorships are evil", people toppled governments. And democracy reigned. Did that solve anything? Well, let's just say a couple of months after the democratisation of Egypt, the Egyptian people attacked the democracy activists. Why? All this activism stuff was preventing everyday business and reducing tourism which, of course, affected their income. And oh, food prices were still high and people still couldn't find jobs.

People respond to incentives. And if things hit people in the wallet/purse, they start to get angsty. It doesn't matter if the political institution is a democracy or a dictatorship. Hell, Lee Kuan Yew was a de facto dictator for the past 50 years. But Singaporeans, in general, are happy.

So, essentially, I think it's extremely difficult to consider a person wise if they fail to comprehend the importance of historical perspectives in decision-making. Whatever that happens now, the event, has happened before. And it is folly to ignore or underestimate the lessons of the past. And really, if you think about it, it isn't so much "history" that repeats itself, it is simply human nature that repeats itself.